quinta-feira, setembro 28, 2006

PMP Question - Probability of Project Schedule

"Manuel, can you tell me the answer for the following question and the reason behind this ?

If you have a 15% probability of exceeding the project schedule you are
a. Above the mean
b. Below the mean
c. At mean"

Another question with some possible different interpretations.

Answer :

The probability that we cannot keep the project schedule is 15%. Duration of our project schedule is:

A. Above the mean of estimates.

"Exceeding the project schedule” surely means that the actual finish date would be behind the determined schedule. And if the probability of delay (so-called failure) is 15%, the probability of success is 85% (100-15).

The farther the determined schedule is from the mean (ABOVE the mean), the less the probability of delay becomes.

This a clear example of inversed reasoning ... LOL. In terms of statistics this is very common.

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